The general election is less than three weeks away, and already, 6 million people have cast their ballots. States like Georgia and Illinois reported seeing record highs so far. Independent election analysts say voters’ discontent is pulling people to the polls, and Millennials are the ones showing up.
Voters in 38 states opted to cast their ballots early, solidifying their selections for the midterm elections, where more than 500 different types of seats are up for grabs. Analysts who advocate for more independents and bipartisan solutions told Straight Arrow that people are fired up.
But not in support of anything.
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“This is very much shaping up as an election for what people are voting against, rather than what they’re voting for,” Ryan Clancy, chief strategist at independent group No Labels, told Straight Arrow.
Clancy added that there’s anger among voters about the current state of affairs. The economy, inflation and inability to afford basic necessities top voters’ minds, he said, and sow distrust in incumbents.
“We’re looking at an era where all the old tropes and understandings of politics are out the door,” Adam Brandon, senior adviser at the Independent Center, told Straight Arrow.
Both strategists admitted they won’t be surprised if the midterms set a record for voter turnout. The elections don’t typically draw out voters without a presidential race. However, the president’s party typically loses the election out of discontent with the president’s leadership.
Turnout may take a while to learn, with 51.8 million mail-in ballots requested across the nation, according to NBC News. About 7.4% of those ballots have been returned. States have differing laws on when those ballots can be processed.
Brandon added that the feeling is different than in past elections because people under 50, more specifically Millennials, are upset with how politicians have been governing their areas and want change.
“You’ve got this angry group out of a variety of issues that feels that neither party is addressing the issues they care about the most,” he said. “They’re going to turn out and punish the incumbents.”
Raging against the machine
Candidates have made their pitch to America and their constituents that they’ll help lower the cost of living on mailers, televisions and now, social media. Brandon said Millennials are taking a larger hold of politics and forcing messaging to change, becoming outspoken against the status quo.
He noted that Millennials have constantly seen instability in their lives. From the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, to the War on Terror, the 2007 Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas wars. Brandon said that group is hungry for stability.
“They don’t like the divisive rhetoric in their own lives,” he said. “This is a group that wants solutions.”
And they have the tools to do it more easily than past generations. Brandon voted when he was in college several decades ago and recalled the paperwork he had to fill out. Requesting absentee ballots and voting on campus has been streamlined, and states reported receiving them back.
Clancy noted that the environment is different, too. Districts and states that were seen as easy wins for Republicans or Democrats have become toss-ups. Races like the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico and the Wisconsin Gubernatorial race between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany are much closer than their respective political breakdowns would typically result in.
Georgia’s Secretary of State announced Wednesday that voters “shattered” the state’s early voting record, casting 188,667 ballots on the first day. The record reflects a 40% increase since the 2022 midterm elections and is expected to increase as Election Day approaches.
A similar situation is playing out in Michigan, where the Secretary of State said 6% of all registered voters have returned their ballots. It’s a slight increase from the same time period in the 2022 election. The state has seen a nearly 375,000-person increase in mail-in ballot requests.
It’s not yet known how people voted in those states or others, but Brandon said party leaders should at least pay attention to why people are coming to the polls.
“People who are overly relying on just simple partisanship — vote for me because I’m a Democrat, vote for me because I’m a Republican — those are the people who are going to get left high and dry after this cycle,” he said.
So, what about the presidential election?
The Presidential General Election is 107 weeks away. The 2026 midterms could be a precursor for what the country will see when presidential campaigns kick off.
Brandon didn’t forecast voter turnout or motivation for that election. But he predicted that Democratic Socialists of America and the Make America Great Again groups will have a stronger hold on their respective parties. He added that Democrats and Republicans should monitor the midterm elections not to see if they hold control of Congress, but to listen in on the type of politicians voters are interested in seeing rise the ranks and become nominees.
“If you could get a fresh face, you’re gonna do better,” he said.
Round out your reading
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